Illegal gambling sites add to licensed play rather than replacing it, Commission study finds
New research from the Gambling Commission challenges one of the industry’s favourite arguments: that tighter rules push players from licensed sites to illegal ones. Its analysis of open banking data, published on 28 October 2026, found that people who used illegal operators mostly kept gambling with licensed ones, and that they were far more likely to be experiencing problem gambling.
By Ryan Jessop. Published .
Key points
- The study used open banking data from 38,000 consenting people, covering July 2018 to July 2026.
- Of people with repeated payments to illegal operators, 91% also gambled with licensed ones.
- Licensed activity barely moved after a person’s first illegal payment: 24.8 transactions in the month before, 23.7 in the month after.
- 45% of illegal-site users with a PGSI score were at problem gambling level (8+), against 6% of licensed gamblers in the sample.
- A separate 20 October report found access and data friction matter more than better odds in pushing people to illegal sites.
- Published
- 28 October 2026
- Sample
- 38,000 people
- Also used licensed
- 91%
- Problem gambling (PGSI 8+)
- 45% vs 6%
- Data period
- 2018 to 2026
What the Commission looked at
With YouGov, Warwick Business School and the payments firm Yaspa, the Commission analysed open banking transactions shared with consent by 38,000 people. It identified 3,426 payments to suspected illegal operators, linked to 179 people. Almost all (96%) came from current accounts; 15 of the 179 used a credit card at some point, even though credit cards have been banned at licensed sites since April 2020.
The headline findings
| Period | Licensed transactions | Illegal transactions |
|---|---|---|
| Six months before | 28.8 | None |
| Month before | 24.8 | None |
| Month after first illegal payment | 23.7 | 4.9 |
| Six months after | 23.6 | 1.5 |
The Commission found no substantial shift away from the licensed market after a person’s first known illegal payment. Illegal payments tended to cluster close in time to licensed ones, suggesting they were added to existing gambling rather than replacing it.
A much higher rate of harm
Of the 146 illegal-site users with a Problem Gambling Severity Index score, 45% scored 8 or more, the problem gambling threshold. Among 12,543 licensed, non-lottery gamblers in the same dataset, the figure was 6%. The Commission cautions that the sample is not nationally representative and some illegal payments may have been missed.
Why some players go elsewhere
A week earlier, on 20 October, the Commission published the third phase of its illegal-market research. It found that access and data friction in the licensed market, such as verification steps, mattered more to illegal-site users than the search for better odds, and stressed that they are a small minority of gamblers. Separately, the Commission has been ramping up disruption, with £26 million of extra government funding over three years announced in the 2025 Budget.
What it means for you
Illegal sites often advertise exactly what UK rules remove: bonus buys, autoplay, big stakes and huge wagering-heavy bonuses. They also remove every protection, from fair terms to GAMSTOP. Before you sign up anywhere, check the casino on the Commission’s public register; our guide to checking a UKGC licence takes two minutes.
Slot figures are developers' published defaults, each confirmed against two sources; your casino may run a lower RTP. Offer terms dated 9 October 2026. How we check. 18+. Free help: 0808 8020 133 or safer gambling.
Frequently asked questions
Do illegal gambling sites take players away from licensed ones?
The Commission’s October 2026 study found little sign of that: 91% of repeat illegal-site users kept gambling with licensed operators, and their licensed activity barely changed.
How was the study done?
Using open banking transactions shared with consent by 38,000 people between July 2018 and July 2026, linked to survey data.
How can I tell if a casino is licensed?
Check it on the Gambling Commission’s public register using the licence number shown in the site’s footer.
Related pages
Sources
- Gambling.com: UKGC study shows illegal gambling sits alongside licensed play (opens in a new tab)
- Casinos.com: Commission banking data study (opens in a new tab)
- Gambling.com: Access friction pushes players to illegal sites (opens in a new tab)
- CDC Gaming: illegal gambling supplements licensed activity (opens in a new tab)
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